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LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jacoby Brissett | CIN | 20.3 | 21.4 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
| RB | Bucky Irving | MIA | 14.7 | 14.2 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB | Omarion Hampton | HOU | 14.9 | 12.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | CAR | 21.8 | 18.4 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jameson Williams | MIN | 13.4 | 15.6 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | TEN | 10.2 | 8.8 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Tetairoa McMillan | SEA | 12.3 | 13.7 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| K | Jason Myers | CAR | 8.4 | 11.9 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| D/ST | Chargers D/ST | HOU | 6.3 | 14.9 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
Projections optimized for categorical accuracy (BOOM/BUST prediction) rather than MAE
| Player | Pos | Conf | Mode | Aggr | Std | ESPN | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 0.47 | BOOM | 25.9 | 21.4 | 20.3 | +5.6 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 0.15 | BUST | 4.0 | 14.2 | 14.7 | -10.7 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 0.18 | BUST | 3.3 | 12.0 | 14.9 | -11.6 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 0.20 | BUST | 5.7 | 18.4 | 21.8 | -16.1 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 0.21 | MODERATE | 15.2 | 15.6 | 13.4 | +1.8 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 0.25 | MODERATE | 9.4 | 8.8 | 10.2 | -0.8 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 0.16 | BUST | 5.1 | 13.7 | 12.3 | -7.2 |
| Jason Myers | K | 0.24 | MODERATE | 11.8 | 11.9 | 8.4 | +3.4 |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 0.45 | BOOM | 18.6 | 14.9 | 6.3 | +12.3 |
| TOTAL | 99.0 | 130.9 | - | - | |||
| Player | Pos | Conf | Mode | Aggr | Std | ESPN | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | RB | 0.16 | BUST | 2.3 | 16.1 | 22.3 | -20.0 |
| James Cook III | RB | 0.39 | MODERATE | 15.9 | 16.5 | 17.2 | -1.3 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | 0.10 | BUST | 4.7 | 6.5 | 12.4 | -7.7 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | 0.46 | BOOM | 22.6 | 18.8 | 13.2 | +9.4 |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | 0.29 | MODERATE | 11.8 | 20.8 | 11.9 | -0.1 |
| Tyler Warren | TE | 0.36 | MODERATE | 10.1 | 16.3 | 12.1 | -2.0 |
| Dak Prescott | QB | 0.41 | BOOM | 31.4 | 26.9 | 20.5 | +10.9 |
| Broncos D/ST | D/ST | 0.29 | MODERATE | 9.0 | 7.6 | 8.9 | +0.1 |
| Cairo Santos | K | 0.18 | BUST | 4.0 | 9.6 | 8.4 | -4.4 |
| TOTAL | 111.8 | 139.1 | - | - | |||
Methodology: Confidence = (MC_boom × 0.4) + (XGB_boom × 0.3) + (Matchup × 0.3). BOOM if conf ≥ 0.55, BUST if conf ≤ 0.34. Aggressive projects to mode extremes.
Championship Week 17 - maximize ceiling, no time for development
Kupp now with Seattle, faces same CAR defense as JSN. Higher TD equity than Shaheed. Championship week upside play.
If Brissett disappoints, Love is best available. But Brissett has elite matchup - no move needed.
Hunter Henry faces BUF rank 31 TE defense (6.4 PPG!). Ertz has higher floor at Houston. Consider swap.
⚠️ Avoid: Quinshon Judkins, Jayden Daniels, Garrett Wilson
See Waivers tab for full analysis and injury opportunities.
Week 17 Championship matchup vs Kitty's Piggy Skins projects to a tight contest. Our 130.9-point projection faces their 139.1-point lineup, a margin of -8.2 points. Key edge: Jacoby Brissett in elite matchup vs CIN (5th worst QB defense, 53.5 game total) while their Deebo Samuel benefits from DAL's league-worst WR defense. Jameson Williams vs MIN's #1 WR defense is our biggest bust risk. Thursday games lock early - finalize those decisions now.
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | 20.3 | 21.4 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | 14.7 | 14.2 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | RB | 14.9 | 12.0 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | WR | 13.4 | 15.6 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | 21.8 | 18.4 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | 10.2 | 8.8 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | RB/WR/TE | 12.3 | 13.7 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | 8.4 | 11.9 |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 6.3 | 14.9 |
| Hunter Henry (bench) | TE | BE | 10.7 | 4.8 |
| Isiah Pacheco (bench) | RB | BE | 9.8 | 4.7 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) | WR | BE | 12.9 | 12.0 |
| Quentin Johnston (bench) | WR | BE | 8.3 | 12.1 |
| Rashid Shaheed (bench) | WR | BE | 9.4 | 9.6 |
| Sam Darnold (bench) | QB | BE | 15.9 | 17.7 |
| Tyjae Spears (bench) | RB | BE | 9.9 | 8.7 |
| Rashee Rice (bench) | WR | IR | 0.0 | --- |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | QB | QB | 20.5 | 26.9 |
| De'Von Achane | RB | RB | 22.3 | 16.1 |
| James Cook III | RB | RB | 17.2 | 16.5 |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | WR | 11.9 | 20.8 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | WR | 13.2 | 18.8 |
| Tyler Warren | TE | TE | 12.1 | 16.3 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | RB/WR/TE | 12.4 | 6.5 |
| Cairo Santos | K | K | 8.4 | 9.6 |
| Broncos D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 8.9 | 7.6 |
| Buccaneers D/ST (bench) | D/ST | BE | 5.7 | --- |
| Chase McLaughlin (bench) | K | BE | 8.0 | --- |
| Chimere Dike (bench) | WR | BE | 10.7 | --- |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. (bench) | RB | BE | 10.7 | --- |
| Dallas Goedert (bench) | TE | BE | 10.8 | --- |
| Taysom Hill (bench) | TE | BE | 10.4 | --- |
| Trevor Lawrence (bench) | QB | BE | 19.4 | --- |
Projections: ESPN 20.3 | LLM 21.4 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 74% BOOM. XGB: 14% BOOM. Defense rank 5 vs QB. Game total 53.5. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 21.4 pts (within 12.4-30.4).
Context: O/U: 53.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 74%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 13.9 | 16.0 | 20.6 | +6.7 |
| 14 | LAR | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +3.7 |
| 13 | TB | 17.2 | 20.5 | 19.6 | +2.4 |
| 12 | JAX | 16.7 | - | 18.7 | +1.9 |
| 11 | SF | 17.9 | - | 21.9 | +3.9 |
| 10 | SEA | 15.3 | - | 19.4 | +4.2 |
| 9 | DAL | 19.4 | - | 24.8 | +5.4 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 16.6 | - | 19.8 | +3.2 |
| 6 | IND | 13.4 | - | 20.7 | +7.3 |
| 5 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| 1 | NO | 0.1 | - | 0.0 | -0.1 |
Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 17.7 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 25% BOOM. XGB: 13% BOOM. Defense rank 16 vs QB. Game total 42.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 17.7 pts (within 10.2-25.2).
Context: O/U: 42.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 25%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 44% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 15.2 | - | 11.3 | -3.8 |
| 14 | ATL | 14.3 | - | 22.3 | +8.0 |
| 13 | MIN | 15.2 | - | 3.1 | -12.1 |
| 12 | TEN | 15.2 | - | 17.7 | +2.5 |
| 11 | LAR | 15.0 | - | 4.3 | -10.8 |
| 10 | ARI | 16.6 | - | 4.9 | -11.7 |
| 9 | WSH | 18.2 | - | 27.2 | +8.9 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 14.9 | - | 8.6 | -6.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 15.3 | - | 20.0 | +4.7 |
| 5 | TB | 13.2 | - | 27.6 | +14.4 |
| 4 | ARI | 13.0 | - | 16.1 | +3.1 |
| 3 | NO | 14.1 | - | 16.7 | +2.7 |
| 2 | PIT | 12.8 | - | 15.8 | +3.0 |
| 1 | SF | 15.3 | - | 5.4 | -9.9 |
Projections: ESPN 14.7 | LLM 14.2 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 17% BOOM. XGB: 13% BOOM. Defense rank 11 vs RB. Game total 45.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14.2 pts (within 8.2-20.2).
Context: O/U: 45.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 58% | BOOM: 17%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | ATL | 15.2 | 14.0 | 8.1 | -7.1 |
| 14 | NO | 16.4 | 16.0 | 16.1 | -0.3 |
| 13 | ARI | 11.8 | 12.0 | 16.1 | +4.3 |
| 12 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | NE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | NO | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | PHI | 17.5 | - | 25.5 | +8.0 |
| 3 | NYJ | 17.9 | - | 13.9 | -4.0 |
| 2 | HOU | 15.9 | - | 18.1 | +2.2 |
| 1 | ATL | 17.3 | - | 14.5 | -2.8 |
Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 8.7 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 14% BOOM. XGB: 18% BOOM. Defense rank 16 vs RB. Game total 39.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 8.7 pts (within 2.7-14.7).
Context: O/U: 39.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SF | 10.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | -4.4 |
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 14.9 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 25% BOOM. XGB: 9% BOOM. Defense rank 23 vs RB. Game total 39.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 12.0 pts (within 6.0-18.0).
Context: O/U: 39.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | KC | 11.7 | 10.0 | 7.5 | -4.2 |
| 14 | PHI | 12.1 | 8.0 | 14.7 | +2.6 |
| 13 | LV | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 18.6 | - | 13.0 | -5.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 16.7 | - | 27.5 | +10.8 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.2 | - | 24.9 | +12.7 |
| 2 | LV | 15.7 | - | 3.5 | -12.2 |
| 1 | KC | 14.7 | - | 8.1 | -6.6 |
Projections: ESPN 9.8 | LLM 4.7 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 3% BOOM. XGB: 12% BOOM. Defense rank 28 vs RB. Game total 36.5. Mode: BUST. Projection: 4.7 pts (within 1.0-8.5).
Context: O/U: 36.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 7.2 | - | 2.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 8.3 | - | 3.0 | -5.3 |
| 13 | DAL | 9.7 | - | 5.3 | -4.4 |
| 12 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | WSH | 11.4 | - | 5.8 | -5.6 |
| 7 | LV | 11.5 | - | 12.4 | +0.9 |
| 6 | DET | 8.9 | - | 6.1 | -2.8 |
| 5 | JAX | 7.7 | - | 8.6 | +0.9 |
| 4 | BAL | 9.2 | - | 12.8 | +3.6 |
| 3 | NYG | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 2 | PHI | 10.9 | - | 3.9 | -7.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 12.8 | - | 4.8 | -8.0 |
Projections: ESPN 21.8 | LLM 18.4 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM. XGB: 11% BOOM. Defense rank 21 vs WR. Game total 42.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 18.4 pts (within 12.4-24.4).
Context: O/U: 42.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 20.6 | 22.0 | 18.3 | -2.3 |
| 14 | ATL | 20.9 | 22.0 | 28.1 | +7.2 |
| 13 | MIN | 21.9 | 24.0 | 4.3 | -17.6 |
| 12 | TEN | 21.3 | - | 37.1 | +15.8 |
| 11 | LAR | 23.0 | - | 20.6 | -2.4 |
| 10 | ARI | 22.0 | - | 20.3 | -1.7 |
| 9 | WSH | 24.5 | - | 22.0 | -2.5 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 20.0 | - | 26.3 | +6.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 17.9 | - | 30.2 | +12.3 |
| 5 | TB | 15.9 | - | 27.2 | +11.3 |
| 4 | ARI | 16.4 | - | 13.0 | -3.4 |
| 3 | NO | 15.5 | - | 20.6 | +5.1 |
| 2 | PIT | 14.4 | - | 18.3 | +3.9 |
| 1 | SF | 14.7 | - | 19.4 | +4.7 |
Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 13.7 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 14% BOOM. XGB: 17% BOOM. Defense rank 16 vs WR. Game total 42.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 13.7 pts (within 7.7-19.7).
Context: O/U: 42.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | NO | 13.2 | 11.0 | 4.5 | -8.7 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 12.9 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM. XGB: 42% BOOM. Defense rank 27 vs WR. Game total 53.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 12.0 pts (within 6.0-18.0).
Context: O/U: 53.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.9 | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | - | 14.3 | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | - | 22.6 | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | - | 7.8 | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | - | 5.2 | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | - | 13.8 | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | - | 18.6 | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | - | 7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | - | 4.7 | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | - | 18.1 | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BUST)
Reasoning: OUT - Placed on IR with concussion 12/24. Season over. 0.0 projection correct.
Context: O/U: 36.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 17.2 | 11.0 | 12.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | - | 24.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | - | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | - | 18.6 | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | - | 25.5 | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | - | 23.2 | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.4 | LLM 15.6 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 29% BOOM. XGB: 13% BOOM. Defense rank 32 vs WR. Game total 43.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 15.6 pts (within 9.6-21.6).
Context: O/U: 43.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAR | 13.9 | 18.0 | 26.4 | +12.5 |
| 14 | DAL | 13.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 | +3.5 |
| 13 | GB | 11.8 | 15.1 | 26.9 | +15.1 |
| 12 | NYG | 12.9 | - | 0.0 | -12.9 |
| 11 | PHI | 12.6 | - | 19.7 | +7.1 |
| 10 | WSH | 12.1 | - | 23.9 | +11.8 |
| 9 | MIN | 11.0 | - | 16.6 | +5.6 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | TB | 13.2 | - | 0.0 | -13.2 |
| 6 | KC | 10.7 | - | 18.6 | +7.9 |
| 5 | CIN | 11.8 | - | 2.0 | -9.8 |
| 4 | CLE | 10.7 | - | 5.7 | -5.0 |
| 3 | BAL | 12.9 | - | 6.3 | -6.6 |
| 2 | CHI | 13.0 | - | 18.8 | +5.8 |
| 1 | GB | 12.9 | - | 6.6 | -6.3 |
Projections: ESPN 8.3 | LLM 12.1 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 18% BOOM. XGB: 15% BOOM. Defense rank 31 vs WR. Game total 39.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 12.1 pts (within 6.1-18.1).
Context: O/U: 39.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 18%
XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 39% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | KC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | PHI | 8.7 | - | 2.8 | -5.9 |
| 13 | LV | 10.0 | - | 11.3 | +1.3 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 12.6 | - | 0.0 | -12.6 |
| 10 | PIT | 11.7 | - | 9.2 | -2.5 |
| 9 | TEN | 12.3 | - | 15.3 | +3.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 13.5 | - | 0.0 | -13.5 |
| 7 | IND | 14.9 | - | 11.0 | -3.9 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 17.5 | - | 6.9 | -10.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 13.8 | - | 23.8 | +10.0 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.7 | - | 14.9 | +2.2 |
| 2 | LV | 11.5 | - | 15.9 | +4.4 |
| 1 | KC | 6.4 | - | 24.9 | +18.5 |
Projections: ESPN 9.4 | LLM 9.6 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 30% BOOM. XGB: 14% BOOM. Defense rank 21 vs WR. Game total 42.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.6 pts (within 3.6-15.6).
Context: O/U: 42.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 30%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 53% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 8.7 | - | 12.1 | +3.4 |
| 14 | ATL | 8.0 | - | 16.7 | +8.7 |
| 13 | MIN | 7.9 | - | 2.6 | -5.3 |
| 12 | TEN | 7.8 | - | 0.5 | -7.3 |
| 11 | LAR | 9.6 | - | 4.9 | -4.7 |
| 10 | ARI | 10.4 | - | 3.3 | -7.1 |
| 9 | WSH | 10.8 | - | 11.8 | +1.0 |
| 8 | BYE | 12.2 | - | 14.5 | +2.3 |
| 7 | HOU | 11.3 | - | 8.0 | -3.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 10.0 | - | 6.8 | -3.2 |
| 5 | TB | 9.3 | - | 21.4 | +12.1 |
| 4 | ARI | 9.7 | - | 9.2 | -0.5 |
| 3 | NO | 10.1 | - | 8.2 | -1.9 |
| 2 | PIT | 11.3 | - | 15.2 | +3.9 |
| 1 | SF | 10.6 | - | 9.3 | -1.3 |
Projections: ESPN 10.2 | LLM 8.8 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 30% BOOM. XGB: 19% BOOM. Defense rank 16 vs TE. Game total 39.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 8.8 pts (within 4.3-13.3).
Context: O/U: 39.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 30%
XGB (This Week): Boom 19% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | CAR | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.0 | -2.7 |
| 14 | TB | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.8 | -1.9 |
| 13 | MIA | 8.7 | 11.0 | 8.9 | +0.2 |
| 12 | ATL | 9.3 | - | 10.6 | +1.3 |
| 11 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | CAR | 8.9 | - | 19.2 | +10.2 |
| 9 | LAR | 8.3 | - | 12.1 | +3.8 |
| 8 | TB | 9.6 | - | 10.3 | +0.7 |
| 7 | CHI | 7.5 | - | 12.9 | +5.4 |
| 6 | NE | 7.9 | - | 1.5 | -6.4 |
| 5 | NYG | 7.9 | - | 3.7 | -4.2 |
| 4 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 3 | SEA | 10.6 | - | 11.1 | +0.5 |
| 2 | SF | 9.1 | - | 15.9 | +6.8 |
| 1 | ARI | 7.3 | - | 15.6 | +8.3 |
Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 4.8 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 12% BOOM. XGB: 8% BOOM. Defense rank 16 vs TE. Game total 42.0. Mode: BUST. Projection: 4.8 pts (within 1.8-7.8).
Context: O/U: 42.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 51% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 12%
XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 62% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | BUF | 10.3 | 5.0 | 2.8 | -7.5 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NYG | 11.2 | - | 11.3 | +0.1 |
| 12 | CIN | 11.4 | - | 24.5 | +13.1 |
| 11 | NYJ | 10.0 | - | 8.5 | -1.5 |
| 10 | TB | 10.7 | - | 1.9 | -8.8 |
| 9 | ATL | 9.1 | - | 9.1 | -0.0 |
| 8 | CLE | 9.4 | - | 7.7 | -1.7 |
| 7 | TEN | 9.3 | - | 7.3 | -2.0 |
| 6 | NO | 10.3 | - | 5.7 | -4.6 |
| 5 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 6.6 | -4.5 |
| 4 | CAR | 11.2 | - | 11.9 | +0.7 |
| 3 | PIT | 9.1 | - | 29.0 | +19.9 |
| 2 | MIA | 9.7 | - | 1.9 | -7.8 |
| 1 | LV | 8.8 | - | 10.6 | +1.8 |
Projections: ESPN 12.9 | LLM 12.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22%
Notes: MC: 27% BOOM. XGB: 42% BOOM. Defense rank 27 vs WR. Game total 53.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 12.0 pts (within 6.0-18.0).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.9 | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | - | 14.3 | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | - | 22.6 | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | - | 7.8 | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | - | 5.2 | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | - | 13.8 | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | - | 18.6 | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | - | 7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | - | 4.7 | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | - | 18.1 | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30%
Notes: OUT - Placed on IR with concussion 12/24. Season over. 0.0 projection correct.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 17.2 | 11.0 | 12.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | - | 24.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | - | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | - | 18.6 | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | - | 25.5 | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | - | 23.2 | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 8.7
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38%
Notes: MC: 14% BOOM. XGB: 18% BOOM. Defense rank 16 vs RB. Game total 39.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 8.7 pts (within 2.7-14.7).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SF | 10.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | -4.4 |
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 9.8 | LLM 4.7
MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60%
Notes: MC: 3% BOOM. XGB: 12% BOOM. Defense rank 28 vs RB. Game total 36.5. Mode: BUST. Projection: 4.7 pts (within 1.0-8.5).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 7.2 | - | 2.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 8.3 | - | 3.0 | -5.3 |
| 13 | DAL | 9.7 | - | 5.3 | -4.4 |
| 12 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | WSH | 11.4 | - | 5.8 | -5.6 |
| 7 | LV | 11.5 | - | 12.4 | +0.9 |
| 6 | DET | 8.9 | - | 6.1 | -2.8 |
| 5 | JAX | 7.7 | - | 8.6 | +0.9 |
| 4 | BAL | 9.2 | - | 12.8 | +3.6 |
| 3 | NYG | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 2 | PHI | 10.9 | - | 3.9 | -7.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 12.8 | - | 4.8 | -8.0 |
Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 17.7
MC (Historical): BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 25%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 44%
Notes: MC: 25% BOOM. XGB: 13% BOOM. Defense rank 16 vs QB. Game total 42.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 17.7 pts (within 10.2-25.2).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 15.2 | - | 11.3 | -3.8 |
| 14 | ATL | 14.3 | - | 22.3 | +8.0 |
| 13 | MIN | 15.2 | - | 3.1 | -12.1 |
| 12 | TEN | 15.2 | - | 17.7 | +2.5 |
| 11 | LAR | 15.0 | - | 4.3 | -10.8 |
| 10 | ARI | 16.6 | - | 4.9 | -11.7 |
| 9 | WSH | 18.2 | - | 27.2 | +8.9 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 14.9 | - | 8.6 | -6.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 15.3 | - | 20.0 | +4.7 |
| 5 | TB | 13.2 | - | 27.6 | +14.4 |
| 4 | ARI | 13.0 | - | 16.1 | +3.1 |
| 3 | NO | 14.1 | - | 16.7 | +2.7 |
| 2 | PIT | 12.8 | - | 15.8 | +3.0 |
| 1 | SF | 15.3 | - | 5.4 | -9.9 |
Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 4.8
MC (Historical): BUST: 51% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 12%
XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 62%
Notes: MC: 12% BOOM. XGB: 8% BOOM. Defense rank 16 vs TE. Game total 42.0. Mode: BUST. Projection: 4.8 pts (within 1.8-7.8).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | BUF | 10.3 | 5.0 | 2.8 | -7.5 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NYG | 11.2 | - | 11.3 | +0.1 |
| 12 | CIN | 11.4 | - | 24.5 | +13.1 |
| 11 | NYJ | 10.0 | - | 8.5 | -1.5 |
| 10 | TB | 10.7 | - | 1.9 | -8.8 |
| 9 | ATL | 9.1 | - | 9.1 | -0.0 |
| 8 | CLE | 9.4 | - | 7.7 | -1.7 |
| 7 | TEN | 9.3 | - | 7.3 | -2.0 |
| 6 | NO | 10.3 | - | 5.7 | -4.6 |
| 5 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 6.6 | -4.5 |
| 4 | CAR | 11.2 | - | 11.9 | +0.7 |
| 3 | PIT | 9.1 | - | 29.0 | +19.9 |
| 2 | MIA | 9.7 | - | 1.9 | -7.8 |
| 1 | LV | 8.8 | - | 10.6 | +1.8 |
Projections: ESPN 8.3 | LLM 12.1
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 18%
XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 39%
Notes: MC: 18% BOOM. XGB: 15% BOOM. Defense rank 31 vs WR. Game total 39.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 12.1 pts (within 6.1-18.1).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | KC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | PHI | 8.7 | - | 2.8 | -5.9 |
| 13 | LV | 10.0 | - | 11.3 | +1.3 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 12.6 | - | 0.0 | -12.6 |
| 10 | PIT | 11.7 | - | 9.2 | -2.5 |
| 9 | TEN | 12.3 | - | 15.3 | +3.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 13.5 | - | 0.0 | -13.5 |
| 7 | IND | 14.9 | - | 11.0 | -3.9 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 17.5 | - | 6.9 | -10.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 13.8 | - | 23.8 | +10.0 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.7 | - | 14.9 | +2.2 |
| 2 | LV | 11.5 | - | 15.9 | +4.4 |
| 1 | KC | 6.4 | - | 24.9 | +18.5 |
Projections: ESPN 9.4 | LLM 9.6
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 30%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 53%
Notes: MC: 30% BOOM. XGB: 14% BOOM. Defense rank 21 vs WR. Game total 42.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.6 pts (within 3.6-15.6).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 8.7 | - | 12.1 | +3.4 |
| 14 | ATL | 8.0 | - | 16.7 | +8.7 |
| 13 | MIN | 7.9 | - | 2.6 | -5.3 |
| 12 | TEN | 7.8 | - | 0.5 | -7.3 |
| 11 | LAR | 9.6 | - | 4.9 | -4.7 |
| 10 | ARI | 10.4 | - | 3.3 | -7.1 |
| 9 | WSH | 10.8 | - | 11.8 | +1.0 |
| 8 | BYE | 12.2 | - | 14.5 | +2.3 |
| 7 | HOU | 11.3 | - | 8.0 | -3.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 10.0 | - | 6.8 | -3.2 |
| 5 | TB | 9.3 | - | 21.4 | +12.1 |
| 4 | ARI | 9.7 | - | 9.2 | -0.5 |
| 3 | NO | 10.1 | - | 8.2 | -1.9 |
| 2 | PIT | 11.3 | - | 15.2 | +3.9 |
| 1 | SF | 10.6 | - | 9.3 | -1.3 |
James Cook III (RB): 57% boom probability
Dak Prescott (QB): 51% boom probability
Jaylen Waddle (WR): 49% boom probability
Tyler Warren (TE): 41% boom probability
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Threat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook III | RB | BUF | 17.2 | 16.5 | MODERATE | 57% | 31% | 12% | HIGH |
| Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 20.5 | 26.9 | BOOM | 51% | 34% | 15% | HIGH |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | MIA | 13.2 | 18.8 | BOOM | 49% | 36% | 15% | HIGH |
| Tyler Warren | TE | IND | 12.1 | 16.3 | BOOM | 41% | 40% | 19% | HIGH |
| Broncos D/ST | D/ST | DEN | 8.9 | 7.6 | MODERATE | 29% | 45% | 26% | MEDIUM |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | WSH | 11.9 | 20.8 | BOOM | 27% | 52% | 22% | MEDIUM |
| De'Von Achane | RB | MIA | 22.3 | 16.1 | MODERATE | 13% | 64% | 23% | LOW |
| Cairo Santos | K | CHI | 8.4 | 9.6 | MODERATE | 13% | 28% | 59% | LOW |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | 12.4 | 6.5 | BUST | 9% | 48% | 43% | LOW |
James Cook III: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 23%) | XGB (Boom 57% | Bust 12%)
Dak Prescott: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 51% | Bust 15%)
Jaylen Waddle: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 44%) | XGB (Boom 49% | Bust 15%)
Tyler Warren: MC (BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 41% | Bust 19%)
Broncos D/ST: MC (BUST: 20% | MODERATE: 52% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 29% | Bust 26%)
Deebo Samuel: MC (BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 31%) | XGB (Boom 27% | Bust 22%)
De'Von Achane: MC (BUST: 4% | MODERATE: 78% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 23%)
Cairo Santos: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 30% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 59%)
DeVonta Smith: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 10%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 43%)
Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster
Championship Week 17 - maximize ceiling, no time for development
Kupp now with Seattle, faces same CAR defense as JSN. Higher TD equity than Shaheed. Championship week upside play.
Week 17: Solid floor with SEA target share
If Brissett disappoints, Love is best available. But Brissett has elite matchup - no move needed.
Week 17: Keep Brissett, he has better matchup
Hunter Henry faces BUF rank 31 TE defense (6.4 PPG!). Ertz has higher floor at Houston. Consider swap.
Week 17: Juwan Johnson still our TE1 starter
Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.
Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 12.1 | 47% | 20% | 0.0% | |
| Jayden Daniels | QB | 0.0 | 34% | 30% | 0.0% | |
| Jordan Love | QB | 16.5 | 27% | 21% | 0.0% | |
| Evan Engram | TE | 8.0 | 27% | 24% | 0.0% | |
| Zach Ertz | TE | 10.0 | 24% | 27% | 0.0% | |
| Bears D/ST | D/ST | 8.4 | 20% | 30% | 0.0% | |
| Matt Prater | K | 8.0 | 19% | 54% | 0.0% | |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | 10.0 | 18% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| Devin Neal | RB | 9.4 | 18% | 45% | 0.0% | |
| Giants D/ST | D/ST | 6.7 | 18% | 46% | 0.0% | |
| Harrison Mevis | K | 9.0 | 16% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | 14.7 | 15% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| 49ers D/ST | D/ST | 8.0 | 14% | 51% | 0.0% | |
| Jayden Reed | WR | 11.5 | 13% | 52% | 0.0% | |
| Trey Benson | RB | 8.6 | 12% | 57% | 0.0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 0.0 | OUT:100% | 34% | 30% | |
| Jordan Love | 16.5 | BUST:26%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:21% | 27% | 21% | |
| Kyler Murray | 16.8 | BUST:17%, MODERATE:57%, BOOM:26% | 11% | 54% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 12.1 | BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14% | 47% | 20% | |
| Devin Neal | 9.4 | BUST:35%, MODERATE:46%, BOOM:19% | 18% | 45% | |
| Trey Benson | 8.6 | BUST:34%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24% | 12% | 57% | |
| Quinshon Judkins | 11.6 | BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32% | 9% | 64% | |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 9.3 | BUST:54%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:12% | 8% | 61% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 10.0 | BUST:46%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:12% | 18% | 48% | |
| Garrett Wilson | 14.7 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22% | 15% | 48% | |
| Jayden Reed | 11.5 | BUST:37%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:10% | 13% | 52% | |
| Darnell Mooney | 8.0 | BUST:46%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:20% | 10% | 60% | |
| Keenan Allen | 11.6 | BUST:69%, MODERATE:21%, BOOM:11% | 9% | 56% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 8.0 | BUST:34%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:20% | 27% | 24% | |
| Zach Ertz | 10.0 | BUST:17%, MODERATE:50%, BOOM:34% | 24% | 27% | |
| Oronde Gadsden | 13.6 | BOOM:10%, MODERATE:40%, BUST:50% | 0% | 0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Prater | 8.0 | 19% | 54% | |
| Harrison Mevis | 9.0 | 16% | 48% | |
| Evan McPherson | 9.5 | 9% | 60% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears D/ST | 8.4 | 20% | 30% | |
| Giants D/ST | 6.7 | 18% | 46% | |
| 49ers D/ST | 8.0 | 14% | 51% |
Win Probability
Floor: -37.5 pts | Median: +1.4 pts | Ceiling: +41.7 pts
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | MED | 21.4 | 4.6-27.9 | ↑15+: 66% | ↓5-: 11% | |
| Bucky Irving | RB | HIGH | 14.2 | 5.1-23.7 | ↑15+: 39% | ↓5-: 10% | |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 12.0 | 3.5-23.8 | ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 19% | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | MED | 18.4 | 6.3-30.0 | ↑15+: 62% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | HIGH | 13.7 | 4.9-25.1 | ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 11% | |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 15.6 | 4.2-26.2 | ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 14% | |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 8.8 | 2.9-16.5 | ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 23% | |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 14.9 | 1.2-18.0 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 27% | |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 11.9 | 5.4-18.9 | ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 7% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | QB | HIGH | 17.7 | 3.9-27.5 | ↑15+: 50% | ↓5-: 15% | |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 8.7 | 2.6-18.4 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 28% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | HIGH | 4.7 | 2.2-15.3 | ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 43% | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | HIGH | 12.0 | 3.7-21.8 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 17% | |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | HIGH | 12.1 | 2.9-23.1 | ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 20% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | HIGH | 9.6 | 1.6-20.2 | ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 26% | |
| Hunter Henry | TE | HIGH | 4.8 | 3.1-20.9 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 30% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | WR | HIGH | 0.0 | 6.5-27.7 | ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 3% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | QB | MED | 26.9 | 7.4-29.9 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 3% | |
| De'Von Achane | RB | MED | 16.1 | 10.7-31.3 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 3% | |
| James Cook III | RB | MED | 16.5 | 6.2-27.6 | ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 4% | |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | HIGH | 6.5 | 4.5-25.0 | ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 14% | |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | HIGH | 18.8 | 3.0-22.4 | ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 21% | |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | HIGH | 20.8 | 3.6-22.9 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 21% | |
| Tyler Warren | TE | HIGH | 16.3 | 3.3-18.3 | ↑15+: 21% | ↓5-: 21% | |
| Broncos D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 7.6 | 1.0-18.0 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 31% | |
| Cairo Santos | K | HIGH | 9.6 | 3.9-16.1 | ↑15+: 14% | ↓5-: 21% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | HIGH | 18.8 | 8.2-30.3 | ↑15+: 62% | ↓5-: 2% | |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | RB | HIGH | 7.5 | 1.7-14.4 | ↑15+: 9% | ↓5-: 37% | |
| Chimere Dike | WR | HIGH | 10.3 | 2.1-20.5 | ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 33% | |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | HIGH | 11.9 | 3.8-23.2 | ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 19% | |
| Taysom Hill | TE | HIGH | 5.4 | 0.7-13.8 | ↑15+: 8% | ↓5-: 72% | |
| Buccaneers D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 10.1 | 1.4-21.1 | ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 33% | |
| Chase McLaughlin | K | HIGH | 9.2 | 2.8-16.7 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 24% |
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 17% @ 24.2 | 59% @ 14.2 | 25% @ 5.9 | 13.9 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 27% @ 28.7 | 44% @ 18.4 | 29% @ 7.6 | 18.0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 14% @ 27.6 | 37% @ 13.7 | 49% @ 7.0 | 12.4 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 25% @ 23.0 | 43% @ 12.0 | 32% @ 5.1 | 12.6 |
| Jason Myers | K | 25% @ 18.3 | 44% @ 11.9 | 31% @ 6.5 | 11.8 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 30% @ 14.9 | 45% @ 8.8 | 25% @ 3.7 | 9.4 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 29% @ 24.4 | 44% @ 15.6 | 28% @ 5.4 | 15.3 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 74% @ 21.4 | 2% @ 14.7 | 24% @ 6.0 | 17.5 |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 36% @ 14.9 | 42% @ 8.4 | 22% @ 2.8 | 9.5 |
Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)
| Player | Pos | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 6.3 | 14.9 | BOOM | 55.0% | 29.8% | 15.2% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 12.9 | 12.0 | MODERATE | 42.3% | 35.3% | 22.4% |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 | BUST | 24.9% | 45.3% | 29.8% |
| Jason Myers | K | 8.4 | 11.9 | MODERATE | 23.2% | 55.1% | 21.6% |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 10.2 | 8.8 | MODERATE | 18.8% | 25.1% | 56.0% |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 9.9 | 8.7 | MODERATE | 17.6% | 44.8% | 37.6% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 12.3 | 13.7 | MODERATE | 16.9% | 61.6% | 21.5% |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | 8.3 | 12.1 | MODERATE | 15.2% | 45.7% | 39.1% |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | 9.4 | 9.6 | MODERATE | 13.8% | 33.2% | 53.0% |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 20.3 | 21.4 | BOOM | 13.5% | 50.0% | 36.4% |
| Sam Darnold | QB | 15.9 | 17.7 | MODERATE | 13.3% | 42.9% | 43.8% |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 14.7 | 14.2 | MODERATE | 12.9% | 38.9% | 48.2% |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 13.4 | 15.6 | MODERATE | 12.6% | 44.9% | 42.6% |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | 9.8 | 4.7 | BUST | 11.9% | 28.2% | 59.9% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 21.8 | 18.4 | MODERATE | 11.4% | 66.0% | 22.6% |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 14.9 | 12.0 | MODERATE | 9.0% | 33.3% | 57.7% |
| Hunter Henry | TE | 10.7 | 4.8 | BUST | 8.0% | 30.5% | 61.6% |
Week 17 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.
| Rank | Team | Record | PF (Total) | PA (Total) | +/- | This Week | Streak | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 10-5 | 1861.3 | 1676.5 | +184.8 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L1 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 10-5 | 1771.1 | 1765.4 | +5.7 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W2 | 100.0% |
| 3 | Valued Customers ← | 9-6 | 1822.8 | 1558.6 | +264.2 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W5 | 100.0% |
| 4 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 8-7 | 1759.9 | 1725.0 | +35.0 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W1 | 100.0% |
| 5 | Wookie of the Year | 8-7 | 1705.9 | 1731.9 | -26.0 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L1 | 0.0% |
| 6 | Meat Pistols | 8-7 | 1515.0 | 1664.9 | -149.9 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 7 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 7-8 | 1730.5 | 1674.7 | +55.9 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 8 | Moms rules | 7-8 | 1664.9 | 1778.5 | -113.6 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W1 | 0.0% |
| 9 | Smooth Roosters | 7-8 | 1664.4 | 1646.9 | +17.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W3 | 0.0% |
| 10 | The Warsaw Pact | 6-9 | 1653.5 | 1752.0 | -98.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W2 | 0.0% |
| 11 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 6-9 | 1584.0 | 1689.6 | -105.6 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L5 | 0.0% |
| 12 | Auto DraftKings | 4-11 | 1697.9 | 1767.4 | -69.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L4 | 0.0% |
| Away Team | Score | Score | Home Team | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Valued Customers |
| 4th and pinches | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Ryan's Rowdy Team |
| Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Moms rules |
| Meat Pistols | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | The Warsaw Pact |
| Torta Pounders Football Club | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Auto DraftKings |
| Smooth Roosters | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits |
Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.
ELITE MATCHUPS (Our Team): - Jacoby Brissett @ CIN - 5th worst QB defense, game total 53.5! BOOM candidate - Chargers D/ST vs HOU - Low implied team total, elite D/ST upside - Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs CAR - Rank 21 defense, high-volume target
CONCERNING MATCHUPS: - Jameson Williams @ MIN - Rank 32 (BEST) WR defense. BUST risk. - Omarion Hampton @ LAC - Rank 23 RB defense, low game total - Hunter Henry @ BUF - Rank 31 TE defense. AVOID.
OPPONENT BOOM RISKS: - Deebo Samuel vs DAL - WORST WR defense in NFL! BOOM expected - Dak Prescott vs WSH - Rank 3 vs QB (easy), high game total 50.5 - James Cook III vs NE - Though NE rank 31 vs RB (tough), elite PPR back
Positive Buzz: Omarion Hampton, Tyjae Spears, Jason Myers
Negative Buzz: Jameson Williams @ MIN, All Chiefs (low total)
No waiver recommendations this week.
No major injury concerns.
Multi-agent analysis for strategic decisions (Week 17)
Live data from completed games
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent | QB | Dak Prescott | 20.5 | 26.9 | 0.0 | -26.9 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 20.3 | 21.4 | 0.0 | -21.4 |
| Opponent | WR | Deebo Samuel | 11.9 | 20.8 | 0.0 | -20.8 |
| Opponent | WR | Jaylen Waddle | 13.2 | 18.8 | 0.0 | -18.8 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 21.8 | 18.4 | 0.0 | -18.4 |
| Our Team | QB | Sam Darnold | 15.9 | 17.7 | 0.0 | -17.7 |
| Opponent | RB | James Cook III | 17.2 | 16.5 | 0.0 | -16.5 |
| Opponent | TE | Tyler Warren | 12.1 | 16.3 | 0.0 | -16.3 |
| Opponent | RB | De'Von Achane | 22.3 | 16.1 | 0.0 | -16.1 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 13.4 | 15.6 | 0.0 | -15.6 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 6.3 | 14.9 | 0.0 | -14.9 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 14.7 | 14.2 | 0.0 | -14.2 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 12.3 | 13.7 | 0.0 | -13.7 |
| Our Team | WR | Quentin Johnston | 8.3 | 12.1 | 0.0 | -12.1 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 12.9 | 12.0 | 0.0 | -12.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 14.9 | 12.0 | 0.0 | -12.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.4 | 11.9 | 0.0 | -11.9 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashid Shaheed | 9.4 | 9.6 | 0.0 | -9.6 |
| Opponent | K | Cairo Santos | 8.4 | 9.6 | 0.0 | -9.6 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 10.2 | 8.8 | 0.0 | -8.8 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 9.9 | 8.7 | 0.0 | -8.7 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Broncos D/ST | 8.9 | 7.6 | 0.0 | -7.6 |
| Opponent | WR | DeVonta Smith | 12.4 | 6.5 | 0.0 | -6.5 |
| Our Team | TE | Hunter Henry | 10.7 | 4.8 | 0.0 | -4.8 |
| Our Team | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 9.8 | 4.7 | 0.0 | -4.7 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Final review from run_007 (2025-12-20)
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Agent | K | Ka'imi Fairbairn | 0.0 | - | 16.0 | +16.0 |
| Free Agent | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 0.0 | - | 13.5 | +13.5 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 8.7 | 10.0 | 21.5 | +11.5 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 17.4 | 15.0 | 3.8 | -11.2 |
| Free Agent | K | Eddy Pineiro | 0.0 | - | 11.0 | +11.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 18.8 | 21.0 | 10.6 | -10.4 |
| Opponent | TE | Trey McBride | 16.8 | - | 6.7 | -10.1 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 15.9 | 22.0 | 12.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 14.2 | 12.0 | 2.4 | -9.6 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 4.2 | 12.0 | 4.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.1 | 9.0 | 16.9 | +7.9 |
| Our Team | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 9.1 | 6.0 | 13.5 | +7.5 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 15.2 | 14.0 | 7.1 | -6.9 |
| Opponent | RB | Rico Dowdle | 15.2 | - | 8.3 | -6.9 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 13.1 | 13.0 | 19.3 | +6.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Jayden Reed | 11.2 | 13.0 | 7.1 | -5.9 |
| Opponent | WR | DK Metcalf | 13.5 | - | 8.2 | -5.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.8 | 5.0 | 0.0 | -5.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Patriots D/ST | 0.0 | - | 5.0 | +5.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Michael Carter | 11.0 | - | 6.5 | -4.5 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 0.0 | - | 4.0 | +4.0 |
| Opponent | QB | Baker Mayfield | 16.6 | - | 12.7 | -3.9 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Jaguars D/ST | 5.6 | - | 2.0 | -3.6 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 13.2 | 13.0 | 16.5 | +3.5 |
| Opponent | K | Harrison Butker | 8.0 | - | 11.0 | +3.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 7.5 | 4.0 | 5.6 | +1.6 |
| Opponent | RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | 23.8 | - | 22.8 | -1.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Chiefs D/ST | 0.0 | - | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Michael Wilson | 13.4 | - | 13.2 | -0.2 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 19.9 | 23.6 | 23.6 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 5.7 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
No discrepancies detected this week.